Regional moment tensor uncertainty due to mismodeling of the crust     

Jan ílený 《Tectonophysics》2004,383(3-4):133-147

The retrieval of earthquake moment tensor (MT) requires the response of the medium, in which seismic waves travel from the hypocenter to the stations, to be known. In inverting long-period (LP) seismic data (teleseismic and LP regional records), a gross earth model is sufficient; with decreasing periods, a more detailed model is needed. This is the case when waveforms of weak earthquakes at regional distances are to be inverted. Regional moment tensors (RMTs) of mostly Mediterranean earthquakes are determined on a routine basis by the Swiss Seismological Survey (SED) by using averaged models of the earth's crust. By inverting broad-band records of the M_w=4.8 earthquake near Udine, N Italy, on Feb. 14, 2002, we tested the sensitivity of the MT solution with respect to possible errors in the earth model used and in the location of the hypocenter depth. We perturbed the P and S velocities and the thickness in the 1-D earth model in the range from 3% to 30% of the parameter values and constructed estimates of confidence regions of the MT and error bars of the source time function (STF) and scalar moment in three frequency bands. Similarly, these error characteristics were determined assuming a mislocation in the hypocenter depth. We found that, in the band of periods from 25 to 50 s, the mechanism is resolved well (at the confidence level 95% at least) up to an earth model uncertainty of 30%, in the passband 10–25 s up to about 10%, but it is undetermined completely at periods of 5–10 s. An error in hypocenter depth of as much as double the value reported by the location procedure does not destroy the resolution of the mechanism at periods above 10 s. In the RMT catalog of the SED, earthquakes of M_w greater than about 3.5 are processed at periods above 30 s; thus, the solutions for these events are robust with respect to a possible uncertainty in the earth model used. Mechanisms of weaker earthquakes, retrieved from short periods, should be interpreted with caution.  相似文献   

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey     

Bakir  P.G. 《Natural Hazards》2004,33(3):405-425

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.  相似文献   

Design Earthquakes in the U.K.     

R.M.W. Musson 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2004,2(1):101-112

Three sites in the UK are taken, representative of low, medium and high hazard levels (by UK standards). For each site, the hazard value at 10⁻⁴ annual probability is computed using a generic seismic source model, and a variety of ground motion parameters: peak ground acceleration (PGA), spectral acceleration at 10 Hz and 1 Hz, and intensity. Disaggregation is used to determine the nature of the earthquakes most likely to generate these hazard values. It is found (as might be expected) that the populations are quite different according to which ground motion parameter is used. When PGA is used, the result is a rather flat magnitude distribution with a tendency to low magnitude events (\le 4.5 ML) which are probably not really hazardous. Hazard-consistent scenario earthquakes computed using intensity are found to be in the range 5.8–5.9 ML, which is more in accord with the type of earthquake that one expects to be a worst-case event in the UK. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

2003年6、7月西昌二次4.8级地震的预测与分析     

牟雅元 《四川地震》2004,(4):33-37

2003年6月17日和7月10日,先后在四川省西昌市和西昌-昭觉间发生2次ML4 8级强有感地震.对于这2次地震,我们曾作了较好的中期和短期预测.但是对于6月17日发生的第一次ML4 8级地震,未能做出临震预测;对于第二次地震,则在7月1日向上级填报的周会商表中作了明确的临震预测,7月10日,在西昌-昭觉间发生了ML4.8级地震.根据西昌地震遥测台网各子台的P波初动求解震源机制,结合地震所处的地质构造以及现场烈度考察圈定出的结果分析,认为这二次地震是由安宁河断裂带、则木河断裂、凉山断裂所围成的凉山小菱形块体活动的结果.  相似文献   

混合二维泊松过程的分解算法及其在提取地震丛集模式中的应用.          下载免费PDF全文

裴韬  周成虎  杨明  骆剑承  李全林 《地震学报》2004,26(1):53-61

将一定范围内的地震数据假设为背景地震和丛集地震的叠加，并同时认为背景地震和丛集地震分别满足不同参数的二维泊松过程．通过引入N阶距离概念，将叠加的二维泊松过程转化为一维的混合密度函数，在对距离阶数进行选择的基础上，最终采用遗传算法进行混合密度分解，以达到提取地震丛集模式的效果．文中将该算法应用于我国西南地区松潘及龙陵主震前丛集地震的提取，并与C值的时间扫描结合，深化了这两次大地震前地震活动图象的认识．   相似文献   

The algorithm of decomposing superim-posed 2-D Poisson processes and its applica-tion to the extracting earthquake clustering pattern     

裴韬  周成虎  杨明  骆剑承  李全林 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(1):54-63

IntroductionClusteringearthquakesareusuallyconsideredasomensofstrongearthquakesorasignaloftectonicmovement.Thus,theyarenotonlyoneoftheprimaryevidencestopredictearthquakesbutalsoasignificantindicatortorecognizetectonicmovement(MEI,etal,1993;EarthquakePre-dictionandPreventionDepartmentofChinaSeismologicalBureau,1998).Ongeneralconditions,webelievethatclusteringearthquakesexistrelativelytobackgroundearthquakes,howtoeffectivelyseparateonefromtheotherbecomesthekeypointofextractingtheclusteringea…  相似文献   

Average recurrence intervals of strong earthquakes and potential risky segments along the Taiyuan-Linfen portion of the Shanxi graben system   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

易桂喜  闻学泽  徐锡伟 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(4):426-437

Introduction In AD 1303, the great Hongtong, Shanxi, earthquake of magnitude 8 caused a very serious disaster, which killed over one hundred thousands people at least (Department of Earthquake Dis- *aster Prevention, State Seismological Bureau, 1995). On the occasion of commemorating this ca-tastrophe having occurred for 700 years, we have important problems that need to be answered: How long the average recurrence interval of the grea…  相似文献   

云南2001年施甸地震的剪切波分裂参数变化特征   总被引：14，自引：5，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

高原  梁维  丁香  薛艳  蔡明军  刘希强  苏有锦  彭立国 《地震学报》2004,26(6):576-582

云南地区2001年4月10日至6月8日相继发生了4月10日MＳ5.2、4月12日MＳ5.9和6月8日MＳ5.3的施甸地震. 本文利用云南遥测数字地震台网的保山地震台记录的地震波形资料，使用SAM分析方法（即剪切波分裂系统分析方法），采用地震应力预测的分析手段，对这个强震系列进行剪切波分裂参数变化特征的研究. 初步结果表明，随着地震活动的增强，剪切波分裂时间延迟值t基本呈现增加的特征，但在强震即将发生之前的短时间内，发生t减小的现象，符合我们早先研究发现的震前应力释放现象. 研究认为，在地震活动强烈的构造地区和有强震发生危险的经济发达地区或重要城市，开展强烈地震的应力预测应用实践，可以减轻地震的危害程度.   相似文献   

Source mechanism of small-moderate earth- quakes and tectonic stress field in Yunnan Province     

吴建平  明跃红  王椿镛 《地震学报(英文版)》2004,17(5):509-517

IntroductionYunnanProvinceislocatedinthesouthofNorth-SouthseismiczoneinChina.ItisoneofthehighseismicactiveregionsinChinesemainland.Morethanonehundredstrongearthquakeswithmagnitude6ormoreoccurredinthisregioninhistory.AsanimportantsoutheasternmarginofTibetanPlateau,YunnanregionisahotspotinstudyonthedynamicsofTibetanPlateau.Theactionsofcompressivestressinnorth-southorientationandgravitationalpotentialcausedlateralextrusionofmaterialintheplateauwiththeupliftingofTibetanPlateau.Severalblocksa…  相似文献   

流动地磁测量中地震异常信息的探索          下载免费PDF全文

刘义高  胡诚  张明  李立风  潘海涛 《地震工程学报》2004,26(4):353-356

S方法将同一测期一条流动地磁测线各测点的变化叠加，可抑制单个测点的干扰，使可能存在的震磁异常信息凸现。本研究了安徽省流动地磁测线S异常与邻近地区小震震群活动频次和中强地震的关系；探讨了“震情窗”地区S异常与“震情窗”相关地区中强地震的相关性；讨论了同一测期流动地磁测线各测点δf“同向变化”现象。  相似文献